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Annual spending on optical network (ON) hardware will surpass $17.5 billion by 2018, according to analyst firm Ovum. The popularity of 100-Gbps technology will drive what would amount to a 3.1% compound annual growth rate (CAGR) from 2012, notes Ovum. Increased sales of submarine line terminal equipment (SLTE) also will contribute to the positive momentum.
Ovum made the prediction on the heels of what the market research firm described as “an exceptionally strong” second quarter of 2013 (see “Optical hardware sales resume growth says Ovum”), which Ovum analysts believe signals the beginning of a rebound in spending. The quarter was the strongest in the last six and was the seventh highest quarter in the last 10 years, Ovum reports.
“Ovum’s 9.1% growth projection for North American ON sales in 2013 signals a solid bounce-back year after two years of non-growth,” says Ian Redpath, analyst, network infrastructure and author of Ovum’s new “ON Forecast Report: 2012–18.”
“Network core investments are resuming and 100G is being deployed in volumes,” Redpath continues. “The North American Tier 1 communications service providers (CSPs) and cable operators are investing in their core network to support all traffic types.”
Elsewhere around the world, Ovum expects spending growth in the Asia-Pacific and South and Central America regions. Ovum anticipates growth in Asia-Pacific ON hardware spending to reach 3.1% this year, with strong growth in China, with help from the ASEAN-5 countries (Indonesia, Malaysia, Philippines, Thailand, and Vietnam) and Australia and New Zealand (ANZ) offsetting projected market declines in Japan and India.
South & Central America ON spending is projected to grow by 1.6% this year. The market in this region as surpassed the $1 billion mark, a level that Ovum expects will be maintained.
However, Ovum doesn’t expect growth everywhere. The Europe, Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) region will remain in the economic doldrums this year, the market research firm believes. “We expect 2013 ON sales to come in at a dismal negative 9.6% versus the 2012 level,” explains Redpath. “Spending has been down in four of the past five years, and under-investment in the region is becoming more acute. At some point, the CSPs will have to resume buying to make up for this prolonged period of under-spending.”
EMEA’s drag on growth means that, overall, ON spending globally should only growth 1.1% in 2013 versus 2012, Ovum predicts. But it’s a place to start.
“Ovum’s most likely forecast scenario to 2018 projects strong positive growth in North America. Modest growth is projected for Asia-Pacific as a whole, with strong growth for ASEAN-5 and ANZ, moderate growth for China, and low growth for Japan and India,” Redpath says. “The growth expectations for Europe are a mixed: down in 2013, modestly positive in 2014, and then more vigorous gains for 2015 and beyond.”
The popularity of 100G technology will remain strong over the entire forecast period, starting this year. Revenues for 100G system surpassed 40G sales for the first time in 2Q13, growing 233% during the first half of the year compared to the year-ago six months to reach 1 billion. Meanwhile, 40G sales are headed in the opposite direction, shrinking 24% for 1H13 and dropping below $1 billion to $942 million.
“Nearly all new large-scale, long-haul optical networks designed and deployed today will be 100G. 100G has assumed the lead position and will not yield within our forecast period,” predicts Redpath. “Two positive market trends are emerging at the same time. The first is a need for the CSPs to refresh network technology after a long period of running core networks hotter and delaying investment. The second major trend is the maturity of 100G technology to the point where CSPs have begun deployments at scale. 100G is in the right spot at the right time.”
The One Click Cleaner is an easy-to-use option for cleaning connectors in adapters. Simply insert the One Click Cleaner into an adapter and push until an audible “click” is heard. The One Click Cleaner uses the mechanical push action to advance an optical grade cleaning tape while the cleaning tip is rotated to ensure the fiber end-face is effectively, but gently, cleaned.
The One Click Cleaner is a must-have for field technicians. Small enough to fit in a shirt pocket and a great addition to cleaning kits.
n a new report, IMS Research forecasts that the market for power and cooling products supporting data centers will be worth more than $15 billion by 2014. The report, entitled Data Center Infrastructure Yearbook, shows that the market will grow modestly over the near-term, from approximately $13 billion in 2011.
The study quantifies the market for uninterruptible power supplies (UPS), floor and cabinet-level power distribution, racks and enclosures, and cooling products. The analysis found that UPS is by far the largest market, worth more than $8 billion in 2011.
Jason dePreaux, associate director with IMS Research, says that growth in the data center infrastructure market is a balance between opposing forces. “Digitization continues unabated,” he adds. “Mobile data, electronic health records, and richer Internet connectivity drive data processing and storage needs which, in turn, requires more data centers. At the same time, new server generations offer greater performance per watt, which somewhat mitigates the need for additional critical infrastructure.”
dePreaux believes that economic conditions often play the role of tiebreaker. “The cloudy economic picture severely dampens companies’ willingness to spend on capital-intensive projects like data centers,” he warns.
The new report forecasts the highest growth for products that are used to help improve efficiency in data centers. For example, IMS found that the need to more closely monitor electricity use is reshaping the power distribution market, with intelligent hardware which commands higher prices than their “dumb” counterparts. Cooling equipment is also changing to cope with high-density computing environments. Even enclosures are changing to better facilitate increased airflow and power cabling, notes the study.
Further, over the past five years, three vendors have consolidated their positions in the market via acquisition. The report found that Schneider Electric, Emerson and Eaton combined to hold 47 percent of the total data center infrastructure market last year.
“The big three have each made multiple acquisitions to enhance product portfolios and extend geographic reach,” concludes dePreaux. “Beyond this are literally hundreds of vendors that have carved out smaller niches around the world.”
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A global data center census conducted by DCD Intelligence (DatacenterDynamics Intelligence) found that worldwide investment in data centers is growing from approximately US$86 billion in 2011 to $105 billion this year. The census is described by DCD Intelligence as “the largest worldwide quantitative survey of the data center industry.” DCD Intelligence managing director Nicola Hayes commented, “Our forecast for 2013 shows a slower rate of growth but still a very healthy 14.5 percent over 2012 levels, with a further $15 billion of additional investment.”
The survey incorporated systems across data centers, including facilities management, mechanical and electrical systems including power supply and cooling, as well as IT equipment. That sector includes active equipment such as servers, storage, switches and routers, and showed 16.7-percent growth – from $30 billion to $35 billion – in the current year, with a 12-percent growth rate forecast for 2013.
Of data centers overall, Hayes said, “Much of the increase in investment in this sector is being driven by growth in less-developed markets, although we continue to see some growth in the mature data center markets of North America and Western Europe. Regions such as Asia Pacific and Latin America are the ones really fueling global data center investment levels.”
Perhaps the most eye-popping figure coming from the census is a 63.3-percent increase in power requirements over the past 12 months, to a worldwide total of 38 gigawatts. By comparison, the anticipated 17-percent demand increase for the coming year looks modest. Looking a little more closely at power-consumption numbers, DCD Intelligence found that the percentage of racks housing more than 10kW of power rose from 15 percent last year to 18 percent this year.
“The global trend for data center ‘white space’ – the area in a data center which houses the IT equipment – grew globally by a relatively small 8.3 percent from 24 million square meters to 26 million square meters,” DCD Intelligence said, “though a sharper rise by 19.2 percent to 31 million square meters is forecast for 2013.”
To reiterate: while white space increased 8.3 percent over a year, the requirement for power increased 63.3 percent over the same period.
Then came this statistic, which appears on its surface to be a head-scratcher: “Surprisingly, concern as to power availability and cost – both of which have been constant topics in the media and data center professional groups in recent years – is actually down on a global basis,” Hayes said.
She then offered a cure for the head-scratching: “This is explained in part by the increasing representation amongst the sample of companies in less developed markets where power requirements are smaller and so less constrained than in mature markets. Also in part by efficiency and other strategies put in place by data center companies over the past 12 months to mitigate against increased power costs and to overcome issues to do with availability.”
The census also found that outsourcing, and particularly colocation, increased significantly from $16 billion to $21 billion – a 31.3-percent jump – over the past year “and is projected to continue with a further $5-billion increase into 2013,” DCD Intelligence said.
The North American market’s 14-percent growth can be considered modest when compared to other global regions, DCD Intelligence explained, but Hayes put the figures into perspective. “It should be remembered that this market is a far more mature one than other regions and so growth levels will naturally be lower than in the developing markets. For example although investment in Latin America has grown by 31.4 percent over the same period, the total amount invested is $13.8 billion compared to North America, where the investment over the past 12 months is estimated to be $44.1 billion. The economic impact has however had a slight impact on IT and in particular data center spend with companies being more cautious than in previous years with regards to where investments are made.”
On North American power consumption, DCD Intelligence points out that requirements grew by 5.3 percent over the year. “Figures from the census relating to power usage awareness, carbon emissions monitoring and overall energy monitoring are also positive in the region, showing a growing commitment to reducing energy costs and addressing high PUE ratios.”
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In October, a report surfaced that the US National Security Agency secretly accessed data from tech giants like Google and Yahoo, by way of intercepting the unencrypted traffic flowing between each company’s data centers.
Specifically, it’s believed the NSA tapped into the fiber-optic cables that connect those data centers. The New York Times reported Tuesday that these cables, which aren’t owned by the Internet companies, are easy targets for interception. The largest such fiber-optic cable provider — an under the radar Denver-based firm called Level 3 — may have had something to do with the government’s infiltration tactics. “Fingers have been pointed” at Level 3, reported the Times, citing three unnamed sources. Read more
Industry reports show that CONTAMINATION is the No.1 source of troubleshooting in optical networks, any contamination in the fiber connection can cause failure of the connectors or failure of the whole system.
Clean fiber optic connectors are a requirement for quality connections between fiber optic equipment. One of the most basic and important procedures for the maintenance of fiber optic systems is to clean the fiber optic equipment.
Always follow the “INSPECT BEFORE YOU CONNECT” process to ensure fiber end-faces are clean before mating connectors.
SYOPTEK provides you a full cost-effective fiber optic cleaning product line, which safely and effectively clean fiber optic connectors, dramatically decreasing network outage and downtime.
“The important question that everyone wants answered is, ‘What’s the real market for SDN?’,” says Cliff Grossner, Ph.D., directing analyst for data center and cloud at Infonetics Research. And the market research firm has attempted to answer that question. In its newly released Data Center and Enterprise SDN Hardware and Software report, Infonetics says the data center and enterprise software-defined networking (SDN) market will be worth over $3 billion by 2017.
While the Open Networking Foundation (ONF) has begun to consider how to apply SDN to carrier transport networks (see “Open Networking Foundation plans its 2013”) and several systems houses have launched their own efforts, the Infonetics report covers SDN controllers and Ethernet switches in use for SDN – what the research firm calls “the ‘real’ market for SDN” – separately from SDN-capable Ethernet switches.
“It’s still early days, but our research over the last two years confirms that SDN controllers and Ethernet switches in use for SDN will play a role in enterprise and data center networks, growing to a $3.1 billion market by 2017,” says Grossner. “Wide scale in-use SDN deployments will occur first in the data center with large enterprises and cloud service providers, followed closely by the enterprise LAN. We’re already seeing significant use cases for SDN in the enterprise LAN providing security and unification of wired and wireless networks, and enabling BYOD (bring your own device).”
Infonetics points out that the market is still young and that the majority of enterprises are still “kicking the tires” on SDN. Nevertheless, the space has seen early deployments for the large data centers of cloud service providers and large enterprises such as Google, NTT, AT&T, Verizon, DT, BT, and China Mobile.
Meanwhile, vendors have already begun shipping SDN products. This year has seen offerings from such companies as Alcatel-Lucent, Big Switch, Brocade, Cisco, Cumulus, Dell, Extreme, HP, Huawei, IBM, Juniper, Midokura, NEC, Pica8, Plexxi, Plumgrid, VMware, and others, Infonetics points out.
Looking forward, Infonetics expects 10% of Ethernet switches will be in use for SDN by 2017. North America, where SDN got its start, will see nearly 50% of the SDN revenue market share in 2017 as well, according to the report.
A Bell Labs study released indicates that data traffic on metropolitan access and aggregation networks is set to increase by 560% by 2017, driven by demand for video and the proliferation of data centers. Even more significantly, the study showed that by 2017 more than 75% of that traffic will stay in metro networks, as compared to 57% today.
The labs’ “Metro Network Traffic Growth: An Architecture Impact Study” also indicated that traffic from video services will skyrocket by as much as 720% and data center traffic will increase more than 440% during the same time period. Combined, video and data center traffic are the key drivers to the overall forecast increase of 560% traffic growth in the metro.
Fast-rising demand for video, cloud, and other high-bandwidth services is driving enterprises, service providers, and web-scale companies to bring content closer to their customers as they try to better manage quality of experience (QoE) and improve operational efficiency, Alcatel-Lucent says. The most popular video content, for instance, is being cached more toward the edge of the network so it can be delivered to customers locally over metro networks rather than being accessed from a central cache over the backbone network. In addition, the growing demand for cloud services means that enterprises and operators are adding data centers within the metro area to support service delivery.
These shifting traffic patterns mean more traffic will now stay in the metro – as noted earlier, 75% by 2017, as compared with 57% today. Service providers will require a network architecture that will ensure that the metro remains a key contributor – rather than bottleneck – in the new virtualized environment, Alcatel-Lucent asserts.
The forecasted growth is expected to have a considerable impact on service providers’ networks, says Alcatel-Lucent. Service providers will need to evolve to a network architecture that is optimized for the cloud – to help control costs, guarantee quality, and deliver new revenue-generating services to connect users and the cloud. To address this need, service providers must move toward a cloud–optimized network, leveraging integrated IP, optical, and management platforms together with software-defined networking (SDN). This will allow them to deploy networks that meet dynamic and rapid growth in customer demand for video and other high-bandwidth cloud services with instantaneous access over the metro network, the company concludes.
As manufacturers of optical-communication components are increasingly facing cost pressure and procurement difficulties, an increasing number are outsourcing their manufacturing to China.
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